Expected Value (EV)

Expected value (EV) is the average amount of money or chips a player can expect to win or lose from a decision over the long run.

In poker, EV is one of the most important concepts because it helps players understand whether a play is profitable even if it loses in the short term.

EV explained

• If a decision makes money on average, it is +EV (positive EV).
• If it loses money on average, it is -EV (negative EV).
• If it breaks even, it is 0 EV.

Poker players use EV to evaluate:

• calling bets
• bluffing
• shoving all-in
• tournament decisions

EV example (common poker situation)

You are all-in for $100 and the pot is $300 total. You estimate you will win the hand 40% of the time.

EV calculation:

• 40% chance to win $300 = $120 average return
• You risked $100
• EV = $120 – $100 = +$20 EV

That means the call is profitable long-term, even if you lose this specific hand.